WLCSP Market & Industrial Trends 2012, Driven by Wireless Industry

 published a report "WLCSP Market & Industrial Trends 2012". It said Wireless industry drives WLCSP (Wafer Level Chip Scale Package) market to an over B1$ worth package platform.

• Growth rate is still high, but the market shows early signs of maturity

Many “WLP” (Wafer-level packaging) technologies are now cruising at a very high altitude. This is serious business: over 23 billion units packaged with ‘fan-in’ as we may call it are expected to sell and be mounted in smart phones, tablet PCs or other mobile devices in 2011. For size reduction, together with low cost, remains the main driver for adoption of this technology. If ‘fan-in’ WLCSP already reached high penetration rates in mobile applications for connectivity (Bluetooth + WLAN + FM combos, GPS) and analog integrated circuits (DC/DC converters, LDO’s, ESD/EMI protection devices), it is still growing fast for some other IC types as well as in MEMS and sensors. We are not at a time to claim that “Wafer Level Packaging” is taking off any longer.

• Reaching over 2 million 300mm equivalent ‘fan-in’ WLCSP wafers in 2011 for a total market size of b$1.7

Of course, one may argue that these are tiny devices. Well, if this is true for many of them, it appears that the average size of a ‘fan-in’ WLCSP device tended to increase over the past 2 years, with many “connectivity” devices reaching sizes of more than 30mm². It was estimated that in 2011, more than 2.3 million 300mm equivalent ‘fan-in’ WLCSP wafers will be processed for the first time. All steps compounded (wafer level, die level and test),  It was estimated that the 2011 market value of ‘fan-in’ WLCSP is close to B$ 1.7.

• Prices keep on decreasing, but the market growth rate is expected to stay high at 12% over the 2010-2016 time period

Although costs and prices still decrease as the technology and its market mature, the market value growth rate for the 2010-2016 timeframe is still expected around 12%, 4 points higher than semiconductor packaging in general. However, this is lower than the 22% 2008-2013 growth rate computed for the same market 2 years ago. Costs kept on decreasing thanks to the end of the capacity shortage on 12-inch diameter wafers and thanks to standardizing technologies with simplified process flows. And despite technologies improved to the point that the maximum possible die size could be extended, it’s not all clear skies for ‘fan-in’ WLCSP. With the continuous fallout of Nokia on the handsets market, this is WLCSP’s historical biggest supporter which loses influence, and some tier two handset manufacturers still seem reluctant to broadly adopt the technology.

• Changing paradigms: future growth will be driven by different devices, based on different technologies

Looming over the horizon is the threat of the CMOS 28nm node technology with such a high IO density that some package with a “fan-out area” will be needed anyhow. Hopefully, A significant part of the ‘fan-in’ WLCSP market still relies on the analogue ICs on the one hand, using older technologies, and on MEMS and sensors (particularly CMOS image sensors) on the other hand. This latter device type is expected to be a high potential growth application for fan-in WLCSP in the coming 5 years: we expect a tremendous growth of up to 25% for MEMS and sensors with a WLCSP finishing over the next 5 years. All in all, ‘fan-in’ WLCSP shows the first early signs of a maturing market. It still grows faster than the average semiconductor packaging market mainly thanks to the fast growth rates of smartphones and tablet PCs in which WLCSP considerably helps save space and reduce costs.

• High margins are attracting new player types with diverse business models

The supply chain is still primarily led by OSATs and IDMs, But the original “Wafer bumping houses” and “wafer packaging houses” take a significant share of the market too. All the major OSATs invested in 300mm WLCSP capacity over the past 2 years. TSMC recently claimed their will to step in this market too, possibly opening the way to other foundries.

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